Dylan Ray continues to progress in the Arizona Fall League (2024)

Diamondbacks pitching prospect Dylan Ray has had three starts so far in the Arizona Fall League. In his three starts, he’s allowed six runs over 7 ⅓ innings with nine strikeouts and four walks.

It’s been a mixed bag for the right-hander, as he’s shown the ability to miss bats but has struggled with deep counts. In his last start, he struck out four and generated nine whiffs on the night, but needed 53 pitches to get through 2 23 innings.

“I feel like there’s been ups and downs and I’ve just been focusing week-to-week, getting better every single day,” said Ray. “I feel like mentally I’m getting better, the performance has been pretty close to the same. Some things are progressing, the cutter and sinker are progressing a little. The changeup command has been progressing, still working on sliders.”

Like most pitchers who’ve grown up in the modern age of analytics, Ray uses it to help gauge his stuff.

“I think they’re a good gauge to see where you’re at. Good stuff beats good hitters a lot of times. I think it’s very important but I think command, putting the ball where you want it to go is more important.”

One of the bigger revelations in his repertoire has been the emergence of his changeup. Ray has thrown 18 of them in his two starts at Salt River Fields. The most notable characteristics of the pitch have been a high spin (2459 RPM) and big horizontal break (18.6”).

Those two characteristics are atypical for a changeup. If we put those numbers onto a list of pitchers who’ve thrown 25 changeups in the major leagues, the spin rate would be the fourth highest and the horizontal break would be the third. However, there is only one pitcher in who has a spin rate above 2400 RPM and more than 18 inches of horizontal break, Brewers closer Devin Williams at 2720 RPM and 19.4” of horizontal break.

“I looked at Devin Williams’ changeup a lot, movement-wise and the way he throws it. I just wanted a changeup that looks like a fastball out of the hand, and I would say I pronate or turn my fingers and my thumb down when I throw it. That creates the horizontal movement because the ball tilts sideways. So if I could get a straight 4-seam spin sideways, it would look more like a heater, hopefully I get more chase, swing-and-miss, and early contact [outs]. I just develop it for that reason only and it’s worked so far, it’s been a good pitch for me. It’s been the pitch I go to when I don’t have anything else.”

In his start against the Scottsdale Scorpions’ heavy left-handed lineup on Tuesday, he threw 18 changeups and got excellent results. The pitch generated four called strikes and four whiffs (44% CSW%), making it his most effective pitch of the night.

Another pitch that was effective on the night was his curveball. Like the changeup, he was getting a healthy amount of called and swinging strikes. He was using the pitch to both steal strikes and induce chase below the zone.

“I want everything to play off my fastball. I like to go fastball up and curveball just below the zone. I feel like if I can land the curveball early in counts and go below the zone with it, I’ll get good results with it.”

The cutter has been another pitch Ray has been working on in the fall. He’s looking to add another pitch that plays off his 4-seam fastball, one that doesn’t necessarily move a lot but will miss barrels. Ray acknowledged that the movement and command of the pitch have been inconsistent. He got a whiff when he landed a 2-0 cutter just below the knees against Mets prospect Drew Gilbert. While he got a favorable result, he missed his location as he was trying to get the ball more up and in to the left-handed hitter.

Talking to Ray last time, one of his goals was to improve his two-strike execution. He hasn’t been very efficient so far in the fall, needing 143 pitches to record his 7 13 innings.

“It’s gotten a lot better, especially with the curveball, the changeup down too. I’ve been able to go fastball up and out of the zone a bit too. I feel like it’s been better in the fall league than it was this previous season. Obviously not satisfied with it but I think it’s continuing to grow at a good trend.”

With the fastball, curveball, and changeup, Ray has a serviceable three-pitch mix. His ability to get the cutter and slider going, along with his overall health will determine his long-term viability as a starting pitcher with the Diamondbacks.

Dylan Ray continues to progress in the Arizona Fall League (2024)
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